- Betting on passing fads and stable subjects is usual for humanity, for example in the first century many Romans bet that Christianity would be a passing fad, only decades after it got popular the Roman started to embrace it.
- The Betamax/VHS video system battle for example: it was probably the first fad /stable dilemma I saw in my life.
- I love betting on passing fad’s or “expiration time” for new technologies, I invite you to do it, only two rules:
- Never bet further than your supposed life span
- Publish it on the net for public criticism or acclaim.
Note on my bets: Clearly I tend to underestimate the power of cash-cows… the moment a company gets to a given point of money-making it diversifies and standard rules do not apply anymore: it is just one more monster.
|Years of bet and of expected resolution
|2015/2020 MMOVR worlds||OASIS is coming||Equilibrium limitations are in the way, it seems like it may not be solvable in the near future|
|2011/2012 Tuenti-Telefonica||Telefonica is old school, they won’t grow in latin america||Tuenti is soaring|
|2011/2020 Self-driving cars||On a TV interview on May 2011 I said cars would drive themselves between 2018 and 2023||Correct. But it only applies to big pockets yet :/|
|2011/2013 Twitter||Just a service that may be hard as hell to monetize||Twitter is ok for marketing and engaging users but little more|
|2010/2012 Go (google programming language)||As of 2010 Go is no way up to the expectancies.||Go is not going anywhere yet|
|2010/2012 Facebook||After two years of exponential growth and several months of linear growth I believe 2010 starts the demise of the platform.||Facebook had a brief low point but kept on escalating. Diversification and cash-cow strategies played a big role|
|2006/2007 Viral amateur videos||It was a matter of time before professional marketing gets all over it||Most virals are packaged marketing products|
|2007/2011 Youtube||This is cool but mainstream media will have it closed or absorbed.||In the end the main stream was google|
|2000/2020 Service robotics||By 2000 I wrote in my notes service robots would be all over us by 2020.||Not so much in living spaces, omnipresent in logistics|
|1999/2003 Google search engine||Me back in 1999: What kind of name is that for a search engine!, for sure it is not better than Altavista.||Google is Big Brother|
|1996/1999 Internet||At soon as I tried Infovia in 1996 and IRC I knew Internet was something for life||Welcome our Internet overlords|
|1995/2006 Videogames||In 1995 in a school work I defended videogames market would be bigger than movies within 10 years.||By several accounts it happened so between 2006 and 2009|