Bets on fads

  • Betting on passing fads and stable subjects is usual for humanity, for example in the first century many Romans bet that Christianity would be a passing fad, only decades after it got popular the Roman started to embrace it.
  • The Betamax/VHS video system battle for example: it was probably the first fad /stable dilemma I saw in my life.
  • I love betting on passing fad’s or “expiration time” for new technologies, I invite you to do it, only two rules:
    • Never bet further than your supposed life span
    • Publish it on the net for public criticism or acclaim.

Note on my bets: Clearly I tend to underestimate the power of cash-cows… the moment a company gets to a given point of money-making it diversifies and standard rules do not apply anymore: it is just one more monster.

Years of bet and of expected resolution
Bet Conclusion
2017/2025 Robotization Robotization Pending
2015/2020 MMOVR worlds OASIS is coming Equilibrium limitations are in the way, it seems like it may not be solvable in the near future
2011/2012 Tuenti-Telefonica Telefonica is old school, they won’t grow in latin america Tuenti is soaring
2011/2020 Self-driving cars On a TV interview on May 2011 I said cars would drive themselves between 2018 and 2023 Correct. But it only applies to big pockets yet :/
2011/2013 Twitter Just a service that may be hard as hell to monetize Twitter is ok for marketing and engaging users but little more
2010/2012 Go (google programming language) As of 2010 Go is no way up to the expectancies. Go is not going anywhere yet
2010/2012 Facebook After two years of exponential growth and several months of linear growth I believe 2010 starts the demise of the platform. Facebook had a brief low point but kept on escalating. Diversification and cash-cow strategies played a big role
2006/2007 Viral amateur videos It was a matter of time before professional marketing gets all over it Most virals are packaged marketing products
2007/2011 Youtube This is cool but mainstream media will have it closed or absorbed. In the end the main stream was google
2000/2020 Service robotics By 2000 I wrote in my notes service robots would be all over us by 2020. Not so much in living spaces, omnipresent in logistics
1999/2003 Google search engine Me back in 1999: What kind of name is that for a search engine!, for sure it is not better than Altavista. Google is Big Brother
1996/1999 Internet At soon as I tried Infovia in 1996 and IRC I knew Internet was something for life Welcome our Internet overlords
1995/2006 Videogames In 1995 in a school work I defended videogames market would be bigger than movies within 10 years. By several accounts it happened so between 2006 and 2009