{"id":165,"date":"2010-09-04T23:56:28","date_gmt":"2010-09-04T21:56:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/"},"modified":"2024-12-25T22:27:25","modified_gmt":"2024-12-25T22:27:25","slug":"my-bet-on-past-and-future-fads","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/my-bet-on-past-and-future-fads\/","title":{"rendered":"Bets on fads"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Betting on passing fads and stable subjects is usual for humanity, for example in the first century many Romans bet that Christianity would be a passing fad, only decades after it got popular the Roman started to embrace it.<\/li>\n<li>The Betamax\/VHS video system battle for example: it was probably the first fad \/stable dilemma I saw in my life.<\/li>\n<li>I love betting on passing fad\u2019s or \u201cexpiration time\u201d for new technologies, I invite you to do it, only two rules:\n<ul>\n<li>Never bet further than your supposed life span<\/li>\n<li>Publish it on the net for public criticism or acclaim.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Note on my bets: Clearly I tend to underestimate the power of cash-cows&#8230; the moment a company gets to a given point of money-making it diversifies and standard rules do not apply anymore: it is just one more monster.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border: solid 4px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #eeeeee; vertical-align: middle;\"><strong>Years of bet and of expected resolution<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #eeeeee; vertical-align: middle;\"><strong>Bet<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #eeeeee; vertical-align: middle;\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" background-color:=\"\" #e67566;\"=\"\">2017\/2025 Robotization<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" background-color:=\"\" #e67566;\"=\"\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/2017\/02\/28\/apuestas-sobre-modas-renta-basica-universal-y-robotizacion-masiva\/\">Robotization<\/a><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" background-color:=\"\" #e67566;\"=\"\">My numbers have not been meet for 2025, in fact robotization in the workspace only happened massively in storage and distribution<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">2015\/2020 MMOVR worlds<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/2015\/08\/18\/bet-on-stable-tech-or-passing-fad-oasis\/\">OASIS is coming<\/a><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">Equilibrium limitations are in the way,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/readyplayerone\/comments\/inargr\/what_is_needed_to_make_oasis_a_real_thing_a\/\"> it seems like it may not be solvable in the near future<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">2011\/2012 Tuenti-Telefonica<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">Telefonica is old school, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/2011\/06\/04\/telefonica-ayudara-a-tuenti-a-crecer-creo-que-ni-prejubilando\/\">they won&#8217;t grow<\/a> in latin america<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">Tuenti is soaring<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">2011\/2020 Self-driving cars<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/raul_lapeira\/status\/1096741205377982464\">On a TV interview<\/a> on May 2011 I said cars would drive themselves between 2018 and 2023<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">Correct. But it only applies to big pockets yet :\/<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">2011\/2013 Twitter<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">Just a service that may be hard as hell to monetize<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">True but fundamental from a political point of view, i did not see that comming<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">2010\/2012 Go (google programming language)<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">As of 2010 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/2010\/08\/24\/corrientes-de-opinion-lobbying-y-programacion\/\">Go is no way up to the expectancies<\/a>.<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">Go is not going anywhere yet<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">2010\/2012 Facebook<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">After two years of exponential growth and several months of linear growth I believe <a href=\"http:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/2010\/09\/05\/passing-fad-bet-facebook\/\">2010 starts the demise<\/a> of the platform.<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">It did not happen so, it finally stagnated but it took several years more<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">2006\/2007 Viral amateur videos<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">It was a matter of time before professional marketing gets all over it<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">Most virals are packaged marketing products<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">2007\/2011 Youtube<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">This is cool but mainstream media will have it closed or absorbed.<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">Surprisingly we became the mass media :O<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">2000\/2020 Service robotics<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">By 2000 I wrote in my notes service robots would be all over us by 2020.<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">Not so much in living spaces, omnipresent in logistics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">1999\/2003 Google search engine<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">Me back in 1999: What kind of name is that for a search engine!, for sure it is not better than Altavista.<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #e67566;\">Google is Big Brother<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">1996\/1999 Internet<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">At soon as I tried Infovia in 1996 and IRC I knew Internet was something for life<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">Welcome our Internet overlords<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">1995\/2006 Videogames<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">In 1995 in a school work I defended videogames market would be bigger than movies within 10 years.<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center; background-color: #ddffbc;\">By several accounts it happened so between 2006 and 2009<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Betting on passing fads and stable subjects is usual for humanity, for example in the first century many Romans bet that Christianity would be a passing fad, only decades after it got popular the Roman started to embrace it. The Betamax\/VHS video system battle for example: it was probably the first fad \/stable dilemma I [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":5,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/165"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=165"}],"version-history":[{"count":76,"href":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/165\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1963,"href":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/165\/revisions\/1963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artifactconsulting.com\/lapeira\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}