One friend told me yesterday he is willing to put his money on an Internet start-up founded by a friend of a friend of his.
My advice can not be more clear: put your money elsewhere by the moment, there is absolutely a bubble in technology, in fact this bubble is even bigger when compared with the world recession, I believe in a couple of years everyone will be looking back and asking: “how could we people be so blind?”, of course I could be the one who is wrong but let’s analyze the data.
Facebook for example, now is worth 52 billions!:
“Facebook is worth more than eBay, Time Warner and News Corp.”, two times Ford, two times GM… That’s not believable.
If Facebook goes public market successfully it’s IPO will be bigger than Google’s one, but let’s be honest, has Facebook more potential than Google?, I mean online photo sharing and “online group management” is here to stay?.
I could understand web search was here to stay, and I can understand microblogging is here to stay (mass-media go home!), as well as Wikipedia (if those guys get to control Wales ego), but can not understand this “Facebook mania”.
Facebook has 500 millions users?, look I have got three different accounts (personal and corp. pages) and I don’t use them since months. When I did of my 80 contacts only 3 used it regularly, and so, saw the ads which by the way I never ever clicked.
Some people is even saying that Facebook credit will be the new universal money… come on… going back to Flooz twelve years later? If Facebook Connect didn’t work why should Facebook credit work?. Would you put your money in the hands of the guys how pissed on your profile privacy?, I would not by the moment and retaking customers confidence is dificult.
I am not saying they are going to crash like the Hindenburg, some people believe Facebook will get to 200 billions by 2015, but all this stuff smells really annoying.
I will leave you with a disgusting graph based on real data available elsewhere, fell free to compare this graph with other graphs from 2001 and remember the economic forecast for 2011: economic crisis is yet here and everyone’s budged on Internet ads is very limited.