Betting on passing fads and stable subjects is usual for humanity, for example in the first century many Romans bet that Christianity would be a passing fad.
In current times other bets on passing fads took place: the rise of fascism in Germany was a ‘passing fad’ for many in Europe (doh!) and the rise of pro-semitism was seen as something temporary back in 1980.
In a more politically correct way think of Betamax video system… yes, it couldn’t last (you knew, I knew, the walls knew,…).
I love betting on passing fad’s or “expiration time” for new technologies, I invite you to do it, only two rules:
- 1. never bet further than your supposed life span,
- 2. publish it on the net for public criticism or acclaim.
Balance so far:
| Technology | My bet | Reality as of current time |
Conclusion |
| Videogames | In 1995 in a school work I defended videogames market would be bigger than movies within 10 years. | By several accounts it happened so between 2006 and 2009 | Mostly Win |
| Internet | At soon as I tried Infovia in 1996 and IRC I knew Internet was something for life. And it was darn slow by the time!. | Nailed it | Win |
| Cybercafés | Saw it coming to Spain in 1997 I guessed it would only last until fast Internet was on every home, maybe 2002-2003. | Cybercafe’s are yet in use in recently built urban areas, modest urban areas and villages. | Draw |
| Google search engine | Me (back in 1999): What kind of name is that for a search engine!, for sure it is not better than Altavista. | Google is Big Brother | Lost |
| Service robotics | By 2000 I wrote in my notes service robots would be all over us by 2020. | Just a couple of vacuum cleaners so far. | Probable lost in the way, and even worst, software is to be blamed. |
| Viral videos | It was a matter of time before professional marketing gets all over it | Most virals are packaged marketing products | Easy Win |
| Youtube | This is cool but mainstream media will have it closed or absorbed. | Hulu, VEVO and private streaming taking market quota | Win |
| Go (google programming language) | As of 2010 Go is no way up to the expectances. | Go is not going anywhere yet | Win |
| After two years of exponential growth and several months of linear growth I believe 2010 starts the demise of the platform. | Still going up! but many say they are in a bubble | TBA | |
|
Just a service that may be hard as hell to monetize. |
Twitter rules!
It is ok for marketing |
TBA | |
| Foursquare | On study, seems interesting | Local to the US | TBA |
| Auto-driving cars | On a TV interview on May 2011 I said cars will drive themselves between 2018 and 2023. | Most likely will happen so | TBA |
| Tuenti-Telefonica | Telefonica is old school, they won’t grow in latin america | TBA | TBA |